Managing Uncertainty exam study guide Essay

Overseeing Uncertainty test study control Essay Overseeing Uncertainty test study control Essay Overseeing Uncertainty Exam Format 4 inquiries †pick 2 1 page for each answer The inquiries will cover: definitions, hypothesis, ideas No stunt questions Use models in answers Pertinent parts: - Origins of Wealth 1 and 6 - Use climb of cash for definitions/models The Cynefin Framework Definitions Fundamental Patterns of Complexity Development and Self-Organization Full scale frameworks that appear because of activities of many (apparently inconsequential) operators Model: Traffic in India/advertise cost Network Everything is interconnected Significant on the grounds that anything done by a specialists could influence everything else in the framework Model: changes the temperature of one sea will in the end influence each of the 7. Theft diminished because of modest work in china. Stuff wasn’t worth taking any longer Non-Linearity Impact isn't legitimately relative to the reason Model: Input Effects Negative input impacts balance the framework, implying that there is no change. Positive criticism impacts intensify the change, think snowball impact. (Viral advertising) Model: Negative: snowball moving down a blanketed slope. Positive: Media’s impact on Lehman Bedlam Immense components in the framework at the hour of its creation, which could prompt tremendous vacillations in the last rising conditions Model: butterfly impact Tipping Point Where a framework changes from one condition (of being) to another. (The straw that crushed the camel’s spirit) Model: Downfall of Lehman Brothers Way Dependency Past activities make structures, which lead to the improvement of limitations in the framework. History matters. There is consistently setting. You never start from zero. Model: re-trying or fabricating another underground line - Human Cognition Impeccable Rationality: Spock Surrounding Bias Setting the data is yielded (can be utilized to impact coming about resolutions). Representativeness Reaching enormous determinations from exceptionally little/one-sided tests. (Doesn't have full data) Accessibility Bias Putting together ends with respect to effectively available data Trouble making a decision about hazard Miss-evaluating Threats